COVID-19 Testing Numbers Analysis and CDC Promotion Process
It has been good to see the number of COVID-19 positive cases fall in St. Lucia over the past 3 days such as 0 positive cases on Thursday December 3rd, 3 positive cases on Wednesday Dec 2nd and 0 positive cases on Tuesday December 1st. The Ministry of Health has begun to report the number of tests completed and over these 3 days there were total of 281 tests with 3 positive cases at an average of 93.6 tests since the demotion by the CDC to Level 3 on Monday November 30th.
Prior Testing Frequency
While the total number of tests performed for prior periods are not easily visible the Internet Wayback Machine can be used to view prior snapshots of COVID-19 dashboard and compute the average number of tests per day over various periods.
As of November 15th 13,589 Tests were completed.
Therefore 2506 tests were completed between Nov 15 — Nov 30 at an average of 156 tests over 16 days and 97 positive cases
As of November 3rd — 11,385 tests were completed
Therefore 2204 tests were completed between Nov 3 — Nov 15 at an average of 170 tests over 13 days and 78 positive cases
As of October 9th — 8,655 tests were completed
Therefore 2934 tests were completed between Oct 9 — Nov 3 at an average of 113 tests over 26 days and 56 positive cases
As of September 9th — 6,130 tests were completed
Therefore 2525 tests were completed between Sept 9 — Oct 9 at an average of 84 tests over 30 days and 1 positive case
Some questions resulting from these numbers
1) Why the sudden drop in testing frequency immediately after the CDC Level 3 classification? Is this another Trumpian tactic (additional reference).
2) What caused the change in the format of the disclosure of the information including the number of tests performed? Was that required by the CDC?
3) Have the number of persons that must be contact traced due to close contact of a COVID-19 positive patient or had symptoms decreased significantly in the last 3 days?
4) Have the delays referenced on the Ministry of Health November 30th been addressed?
5) What is the COVID-19 PCR testing capacity currently in St. Lucia? In June the head of the Ezra Long Lab Dr. Felicien disclosed that “the new system will make it possible for 192 patients to receive COVID 19 test results in 24 hour”.
CDC Promotion Process Back to Level 1
While the PM is hoping for St. Lucia to be upgraded to Level 1 by the time of President-Elect Biden inauguration on January 20th. The actual process is a lot more complicated as described below and will take longer.
A destination is eligible to move to a lower level when it meets the primary criteria for a lower level for 28 consecutive days (2 incubation periods). The incubation period is the time it can take for a person to develop infection after being exposed to the virus that causes COVID-19.
When a destination meets primary criteria for 28 consecutive days, then secondary criteria are reviewed.
Secondary criteria are met when hospitalization rates are stable or decreasing and cumulative testing positivity rates are in line with primary criteria data.
A destination’s THN level is lowered if both primary criteria and secondary criteria are met.
If secondary criteria are unavailable or are inconsistent, the destination remains at its current THN level and is reevaluated.
For small-island states with population less than 200,000 Level 3 is 51–100, Level 2 is10–50 cases and Level 1 is less than 10 cases over a 28 day period. Over the most recent 28 day period from Nov 5th to December 3rd St. Lucia is at 156 cases so we are some distance away from Level 2 and technically borderline at Level 4. The case count for the last 7 days is 24 cases so even then it is still a long road before Level 2 unless the CDC changes the criteria.
The CDC is much quicker to raise a country’s Level which makes the downgrade even more problematic since it could have been avoided. Antigua questioned their CDC rating for weeks before it was finally reduced.
A destination’s Travel Health Notice (THN) level is increased when its primary criteria meet the range of a higher THN level for 14 consecutive days.
CDC may raise a destination’s THN level before 14 days if the primary criteria demonstrate a sudden or abrupt increase in COVID-19 levels for 7–14 consecutive days instead of the usual 14 days.
Please reach out to stlucia.analyser@gmail.com with any suggested topics for future articles.
