Trumpian Logic by Government Costly to the Health of St. Lucian’s Citizens
Tuesday’s sitting in Parliament made it abundantly clear that the current government’s sole concern is the comfort of the “Trump-supporter tourists” Republican leaning tourists who do not following recommended best practices as evident from their international travel and aversion to wearing masks and following COVID-19 best practices. The government primary concern is not the health of the St. Lucia citizens they are supposed to represent. While the revenue from the tourism industry is critical for St. Lucia, the government shows a clear lack of understanding of basic scientific and statistical principles. COVID-19 prevention is a matter of mitigating risk and a 2nd on-island test would help reduce the risk to St. Lucia at minimal cost to the island. The government seems unable to understand basic risk mitigation processes and that the health of the country is too important to be sacrificed for cavalier tourists (whose money we certainly need) but who are disregarding their own countries recommendations and travelling internationally for a vacation.
The Government of St. Lucia seems to be following the Trumpian model of disregarding science for political objectives. Minister Fedee stated the following “That is extremely random because again I don’t know where that’s coming from, I don’t know what is motivating it in terms of the call for the second test…Is it economics? Is it public health best practices? I’m not sure,” Fedee declared. It’s baffling that he fails to understand the obvious answer which is that an on-island test is simply a matter of risk mitigation but perhaps he does not understand the concept of risk mitigation and may need a refresher course.
It is important to note that no one is saying that after the on-island 2nd on-island test the tourists should be free to roam about Saint Lucia as even the CDC recommends that one should continue to quarantine for at least7 days. However, it is disingenuous to suggest that the results of the 2nd on-island test are not valuable since it would certainly help protect the thousands of tourism industry workers unless the lives of the tourist sector workers do not matter. It is critical to note that 2nd on-island testing is meant to be IN ADDITION to the current protocols and not to REPLACE the current protocols. All tourists who have a positive 2nd on-island test would be required to be in isolation as opposed to hotel quarantine which is a key risk mitigation improvement. The tourist would need a negative on-island COVID-19 test before being allowed to participate in any tours or excursions.
Let us explore some of the claims further here:
1) During the sitting of Parliament, the PM claims that 2nd on-island testing is not warranted because there is no evidence for its usefulness. This is blatantly false and goes against current CDC advice which the government and the CMO like to claim they are following. A COVID-19 test is a point in time test and no one but the St. Lucia government apparently thinks that it is 100% accurate.
2) This is compounded further by the fact that the pre-testing test results presented by the tourists are completely unverified. An on-island test provides a guarantee against fraudulent tests as there are significant incentives for the tourists to provide fraudulent tests particularly if they are asymptomatic or did not bother get a COVID-19 test. We need to stop blindly trusting tourists only but must verify their COVID-19 testing claim.
3) St. Lucia currently accepts tests that could be as much 7 days old which goes against the guidelines that the government of St. Lucia and the CMO advocated for in June when test results had to be at most 2 days old. If a 3 days old test was not good enough in June when COVID-19 case counts were significantly lower then why is it valid now in this COVID-19 upsurge .
4) The much vaunted protocols recommended by the Ministry of Health failed to prevent numerous employees from testing positive as per the General Manager of Sandals. Even the Minister of Tourism admitted in a recent interview that the management at a hotel CANNOT enforce the protocols in the same manner as they can with their staff. Minister Fedee is completely correct that the hotel needs the guests much more than the guest needs the hotels (as they have multiple other similar destinations). Therefore, the power dynamic is such that the hotel is unable to compel the guests to follow all protocols and would only punish guests for egregious flouting of the laws.
However, since the power dynamic is reversed in the case of hotel employees and hotel management the protocols theoretically can be enforced more stringently. However, it is important to note that the hotel guests are the ones arriving from the COVID-19 hotspots and hence more likely to have been exposed to COVID-19 as opposed to the hotel workers. This basic statistics knowledge is in contrast to the misleading assertions advocated by the Ministry of Health “experts” who should know better and I would hope understand probability and statistics.
Furthermore, as these tourists are disregarding the recommendations of their own health expert why should we expect the “Trump-like” tourists to follow our protocols in our 3rd world island. We need to keep in mind that many hotel workers who work for 40 hours a week (40 hours x 4 weeks x $10 XCD/hr = $1600XCD or $600USD) would be unable to afford one night at the hotel ($600USD+/night) they work at. How do we expect these workers to feel comfortable enforcing COVID-19 protocols within the constraints of this power asymmetry? The hotel workers will simply not be able to enforce COVID-19 protocols effectively on the hotel guests and hence the government of St. Lucia needs to its best to protect the health of the hotel workers.
5) The PM and Minister and Tourism clearly misunderstand quarantine as defined by the CDC here. Quarantine is used to keep someone who might have been exposed to COVID-19 away from others. Quarantine helps prevent spread of disease that can occur before a person knows they are sick or if they are infected with the virus without feeling symptoms. Quarantine keeps someone who might have been exposed to the virus away from others. Tourists are not quarantined as they have access to the entire hotel property, all the hotel employees plus numerous attractions. Tourists are socially isolated from St. Lucian citizens but this is not equivalent to quarantine. Returning nationals in the government quarantined facilities are quarantined as they are restricted only to their room and not the entire hotel resort as applies to COVID-19 approved accommodation for tourists. Surely, the CMO and her team knows the difference between social distancing and quarantining. A 2nd on-island test would be valuable as it would mean that a COVID-19 positive guest can then be isolated from the hotel staff and other hotel guests while a negative result would mean that the tourists can be allowed on excursions and beaches.
6) Tourists are allowed on the public beaches in St. Lucia unless these beaches are no longer accessible to locals. This applies also to non-beachfront properties as outlined here. “Note that Stonefield isn’t beachfront, but you can hop on a quick shuttle to a surrounding beach every Tuesday morning at 10 a.m., packing your own snorkel gear to explore the Caribbean’s clear, blue waters. (Keep in mind that the shuttle schedule will likely evolve as the island continues to reopen.) If you’re craving daily ocean time, consider a stay at a beachfront property, like Sugar Beach, A Viceroy Resort or the all-inclusive Sandals Grande St. Lucian.” How are tourists kept separate from St. Lucians when both of them are apparently allowed on the same beach? Is this considered quarantine when both tourists and locals are on the same beach?
7) Finally the myth of the “backdoor” route as the sole reason for the dramatic 870% increase in COVID-19 cases (from 27 to 235) in 8 weeks from October 1st to November 25th can be disproven by analysing statistics from Dominica. Dominica’s case count has increased by 225% from 31 to 77 during that same period despite being surrounded by the two countries (Martinique and Guadeloupe) that the reported backdoor arrivals are originating from. If “backdoor” arrivals were the primary cause of the increase of COVID-19 cases, then Dominica’s increase should have been even more dramatic than St. Lucia since Martinique is the presumably the only island from which the “backdoor” arrivals are arriving from.
8) It is also alarming to note that even with minimal on-island testing conducted on non-nationals 12 of the COVID-19 cases reported in the past week were from foreigners. What is the COVID-19 positivity rate of tests conducted on visitors to the island? From the COVID-19 update of November 25th “Two of the cases are visitors to Saint Lucia. Case #231 is a 37 year old female and case #232 is a 35 year old male. They arrived in country on Sunday November 22, 2020 and required retesting for COVID-19 upon arrival. They proceeded to a COVID-19 certified property for quarantine, pending the receipt of their results. Upon being confirmed as COVID-19 cases, they were both since been transferred into isolation and the contact tracing process for these cases have commenced.”
On Thursday November 19th there were another two non-nationals who tested positive for COVID-19. How does the COVID-19 positivity rate differ for tests completed on non-nationals vs nationals? Obviously, if there is no mandatory on-island testing then numerous cases of COVID-19 cases are being missed from visitors who are only on St. Lucia for a few days but still have sufficient time to infect St. Lucian citizens. Additionally, can anyone clarify the location of the quarantine and isolation mentioned above? Are the tourists detained at the same locations as the locals?
9) The cost continually concerns mentioned regarding the on-island testing is a red herring since we should be charging a premium of the cost of the testing to the island. There would be no direct costs to St. Lucia for tourists to complete on-island testing as this would be fully paid by the tourist. Furthermore, the cost of the on-island PCR COVID-19 test is less than 10% of the total cost of a vacation to St. Lucia. This is a small price to pay to reduce the risk of community spread on the island while also contributing directly the COVID-19 efforts in St. Lucia.
When will the government listen to scientific reason and mandate on-island testing for all arrivals from high risk COVID-19 countries? Does the Government of St. Lucia care about the health of the citizens of St. Lucia or is the primary concern the comfort of tourists who do not care about infecting St. Lucians?
